Ruidoso, N.M.--The outlook for the late March-through-June wildfire season around the Sacramento Mountains is worse than 2011 when several major fires in the area burned forests and homes. La Nina, curbing seasonal rain and snow in southern New Mexico, got some of the blame during a 2012 Fire Season Assessment presented Wednesday during the Sierra Blanca Wildland Fire Academy in Ruidoso.
National Weather Service Fire Weather Program Leader Tom Bird delivered the outlook to a group of several dozen firefighters at the Ruidoso Convention Center.
Pointing to a map with number 116 over the state of Texas, Bird explained.
"What that means is it (2011) was the 116th warmest year ever in Texas out of 117 years. So it was one year away from being a record. Look at New Mexico, 99. It was very warm last year in the state."
Highlighting a companion map, which featured 2011 precipitation, Bird said, "Look at how dry it was, all-time driest ever in Texas. All the dryness was in west Texas and southeast New Mexico. We were the sixth driest ever across the state of New Mexico last year. So that's why, in large part, we had such a bad fire season last year."
While the final month of 2011 defied La Nina, bringing average to slightly-above average precipitation, Bird said it was not enough.
"If you notice here recently, we've started that drying and warming trend already again. That's kind of what we expected. That's what the outlooks were for this winter for this part of the country."
Bird said the pattern now is similar to last winter. But unlike a year ago, when a mild drought was in place, southeastern New Mexico is now painted with extreme and exceptional drought conditions.
"The moisture that we got in December is not going to help us when we get in the fire season in March, April, May and June," Bird said. "We get most of our moisture during the monsoon, that's July, August and September. And in the winter we have another little peak. We get about 70 percent of our moisture in the summertime. The rest of the 30 percent is right now. If we don't get this, and we go into the fire season dried up, that's kind of what we're starting to see - I didn't tell you I had good news."
The extreme or exceptional drought conditions are seriously impacting fine fuels, such as grasses and other vegetation.
"We're starting out this year worse than last year," Bird told the firefighters. "And La Nina is expected to continue through the fire season which means dry. Last year's La Nina was moderately strong. Our La Nina this year is not as strong. I think that's why we had a wet December. So maybe there's some hope. But the problem is it seems to be strengthening."
Five main factors - drought, the condition of fine fuels, seasonal temperatures and precipitation, spring and early summer weather patterns, and the typical arrival of the monsoon season - are used to establish a fire season outlook. Chuck Maxwell, the predictive services meteorologist with the Southwest Coordination Center, provided the outlook that was presented by Bird.
The center is the support agency for wildland firefighting in Arizona, New Mexico and west Texas.
"They developed this with an above normal potential for significant fires across the southeastern two-thirds of New Mexico," Bird said of the outlook for the coming five months.
For the area, Red Flag Warnings, which are issued by Bird's National Weather Service forecast office in Santa Teresa, N.M., have historically been highest in April, followed by May, April and June.
The warnings are issued when low relative humidity and windy conditions are forecast. They alert firefighting and land management agencies that conditions are ripe for wildland fires to start and rapidly grow.
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